Archives for September 2015
Intuition
An outdoor café, a September afternoon along the Maas, is an ideal venue for close conversation, but also for people-watching, guessing attachments and professions of passers-by. It’s a game I seldom win.
Still, I think about people more, and differently, than I once did.
And I take greater note of my intuitions about them.
“Intuition” is not well defined, but can be approximated as The capacity for direct, immediate knowledge before rational analysis, reaching a conclusion based on previous experiences and emotional inputs’ (Dane, 2007). It’s not the result of a rational process, but a realization that comes from the heart rather than the head, or the left brain rather than the right.
I had a spirited debate recently about whether the heart learns, thus whether intuition can be developed. No question that our rational nature is informed by facts and improves with practice. While the heart is often thought of as constant and true, I suspect that it, too, can change with experience. The ‘bad feeling’ that we get about some people or situations reflects earlier misfortune. Attractions should similarly connect to positive times of joy, comfort, or security.
The linking of experience and emotion to produce an intuitive feeling of gratitude is nicely illustrated by two recent authors.
David Brooks’ essay observes that Gratitude happens when kindness exceeds expectations, or when it is undeserved. Life may not surpass dreams, but it can nicely surpass expectations. This is a lovely thought: I have expectations of people, probably moreso of those who I know well or have close ties to. Paradoxically, I may also feel disappointed by them more often, while being delighted by the occasional stranger who goes out of their way to help.
The Sage writes that many human emotions involve judgments. We are angry because someone behaved badly, disappointed because we misjudged events. We would feel differently if we judged differently. Reciprocally, then, foreboding likely attaches to a nagging doubt, anger to a thwarted desire? We can help the way we feel, if the way we feel flows from a mistaken judgment that we can correct.
Once identified as a skill with management utility, the academic community produced guidelines for developing intuition as a skill, of course (Sadler-Smith, 2004):
1. Open up the closet. Trust your feelings; count on intuitive judgments; don’t suppress hunches.
2. Don’t mix up your I’s. Distinguish your instincts, your insights, and your intuitions.
3. Elicit good feedback. Seek feedback on your judgments and build confidence in gut feel.
4. Benchmark your intuitions. Get a feel for your batting average.
5. Use imagery. Visualize potential future scenarios that take your gut feelings into account.
6. Play devil’s advocate. Probe how robust gut feel is when challenged.
7. Capture and validate your intuitions. Log them before they are censored by rational analysis.
Maybe. For me, I (do try to) spend more time listening and watching than I used to, and to be skeptical of whether my beliefs about people are in line with their reality.
Especially when lessons can be learned in a café.
The moral hazard of startups
Selling equity to venture capitalists has become a lucrative business model, headlined FT-Entrepreneurship this morning. It’s a provocative article. With seed capital abundant, anyone with a compelling idea and a silver tongue can fund a couple of year’s employment in an incubator. Entrepreneurs can enjoy the start-up lifestyle with little personal risk, Murad Ahmed writes. The moral hazard is that Founders can live for a year or two on seed capital, have some fun and punch their lottery ticket. If things don’t take off immediately, they can simply move on.
My move from Corporate to Startup was driven by a desire to get great ideas through to physicians and patients, to keep control of key business and project decisions, to select capable and congenial talent to work with, and to keep what I win when it all succeeds.
The reality of running a startup is more humbling.
The daily realities of long hours, frequent setbacks, demanding customers and skeptical investors requires sustained effort and deep resilience to overcome. (Horowitz, 2014)
Along the way, I’ve learned what I am good at, mastered what I needed to know, and recognized (almost too late)what was beyond me.
I’ve always kept to my principles of building value for customers, being fair to employees, providing a return for my investors, and being honest with everyone.
The FT suggests two additional tests for identifying the truly committed entrepreneur. During conversation, 1) Get edgy and unpleasant to see that they behave rationally and understand what they need to succeed, and 2) Change the subject, to see whether they are focused and immediately get back to the topic.
I’m embarrassed to say that I’ve probably failed both. I move on when confronted by arrogance, and follow the social talker to building rapport.